Even small probabilities of infection for individuals compound to large probabilities for a large number of people. Carnival needs low risk passengers and screening to be near 100% effective to reduce ...

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...

Recently Don Ludwig has shown that calculations of extinction probabilities based on currently available data are often meaningless due to the large uncertainty accompanying the estimates. Here we ...

Scientists are working on an accurate way of calculating the probability of finding alien life elsewhere in the universe. Astrophysicists have developed a theoretical model that could be used to ...

Learn how to accurately quantify credit risk with key measures such as probability of default, loss given default, and exposure at default for informed lending.

(The Conversation is an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts.) Toshi Hirabayashi, Georgia Institute of Technology (THE CONVERSATION) I was preparing ...